While global wind turbine manufacturers brace for a new round of industry reshuffling, Danish wind giant Vestas has secured a decisive edge in the U.S. market.
In its latest research note, global investment bank Citi projected that Vestas will deliver roughly 20 gigawatts of onshore wind turbines solely for the U.S. market between 2026 and 2030. This bullish forecast stems from sweeping policy shifts and a marked rebound in wind orders across the United States, underscoring how the Nordic OEM is capitalizing fully on America’s energy transition window.
The upbeat outlook is largely driven by time-sensitive U.S. tax incentives. The one-year anniversary of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) recently passed, marking the closing deadline for wind developers to lock in 45 years of Production Tax Credit (PTC) eligibility by commencing construction.
Under the latest regulatory ruling, a project is deemed construction-started and eligible for tax breaks once developers spend 5% of total capital costs — a framework widely known as the “5% Safe Harbor” rule. Industry estimates show around 20 GW of U.S. wind capacity has qualified for subsidies via this mechanism. Citi notes that Vestas, bolstered by its robust supply chain footprint, has captured a substantial share of this pipeline.
Official figures show Vestas currently holds about 6.8 GW of outstanding U.S. onshore wind orders. Citi’s analysis assumes Vestas maintains its consistent 35–40% domestic market share and has secured its slice of the 5% Safe Harbor-qualified projects. Beyond its existing 6.8 GW order backlog, the firm is poised to add another 5–10 GW of fresh contracts over the coming years, which together underpin the 20 GW delivery target through 2030.
“Our projection remains highly realistic, supported by recent order momentum plus pent-up demand set to unlock as uncertainties over permitting and trade agreements ease,” Citi analysts wrote in the report.
Beyond the short-term construction rush fueled by expiring tax credits, Citi highlights a durable long-term growth catalyst: data centers. The boom in artificial intelligence and high-performance computing has sparked structural surges in U.S. power demand. The bank forecasts steady wind capacity growth driven by data center power needs stretching well through the 2030s.
Though federal authorities have paused approvals for new wind projects, threatening up to 30 GW of prospective capacity, Citi stresses that onshore wind remains highly competitive even without tax subsidies amid tight supply across all other power generation sources. An additional 26 GW of fully permitted wind projects nationwide stands ready to break ground.
The five-year 20 GW delivery pipeline once again solidifies Vestas’ entrenched market standing across North America.
